How many cases should a drinks brand send into a new market?

The familiar answers are rarely useful:

• whatever fills the pallet;

• whatever the distributor requested;

• enough to avoid running out;

• as little as possible until the market is proven.

Each answer protects one part of the decision while ignoring the rest.

A small shipment can look cautious but create expensive freight per bottle, unreliable availability and a false negative when demand cannot be served. A large shipment can improve freight economics while trapping cash in stock that has not earned a second order.

The right opening quantity is not a universal number. It depends on the demand already visible, the distance and cost of replenishment, the product's value and contribution, and the commercial job the stock must perform.

Start with the demand you can name

Separate demand into four lines:

1. Confirmed B2B demand

Count purchase orders, agreed first orders or buyer commitments that have a quantity and realistic delivery window. A promising conversation is not committed demand.

2. Expected B2C demand during the replenishment lead time

Estimate what consumers could buy between placing the next replenishment order and receiving it locally. Use existing customer activity where possible: a waiting list, prior cross-border orders, campaign traffic, retailer enquiries or demand from a current community.

Do not mix this forecast with confirmed B2B orders. One is committed; the other is an estimate that should carry an explicit confidence level.

3. Samples and activation stock

Samples for bars, retailers, media, events and partners have a different job from sellable inventory. Allocate them deliberately rather than quietly removing bottles from stock that was meant to fulfil orders.

4. Safety stock

Add a buffer for plausible variation in demand or replenishment timing. The buffer should reflect the volatility and consequences of running out—not a percentage copied from another category.

That gives a useful opening-stock structure:

Opening stock = confirmed B2B demand + expected B2C demand during replenishment + sample/activation units + safety stock

It is a starting quantity, not yet a decision. The economics still have to work.

Distance changes more than the freight bill

A distant market can affect three things at once:

• the fixed cost of moving the shipment;

• the landed cost per bottle at different shipment sizes;

• the time required to replenish.

Compare at least three realistic shipment sizes. For each one, calculate the total cost to make the stock available locally and divide it by the number of sellable units.

The relevant cost can include product cost, freight, insurance, import duties, compliance or handling charges, warehouse intake and other market-specific fees. Tax treatment and recoverability vary, so use the structure that applies to the brand and market.

A tiny shipment may reduce total cash exposure but make each bottle commercially unworkable. A larger shipment may lower the cost per bottle but create more months of stock than the demand can justify.

The decision sits between those two curves.

Product value changes the sensible starting quantity

Two brands with the same demand forecast may need very different opening quantities.

A high-value spirit with strong contribution per bottle may absorb fixed shipment and handling costs across fewer units. Its expected sales velocity may also be lower, making a smaller opening batch commercially credible.

A mid-priced wine usually has less contribution available per bottle to absorb the same fixed route costs. Case configuration, warehouse handling and trade margins can make very small quantities inefficient.

A lower-priced, higher-volume product such as an RTD is often even more sensitive to freight and handling per unit. A shipment that is operationally possible can still be economically pointless.

High value does not automatically mean low risk. Each unit ties up more cash. The relevant comparison is:

Contribution per unit = net revenue per unit − product cost − variable route costs

Then calculate:

Landed cash at risk = opening units × landed cost per unit + fixed market-entry and inbound costs

The first formula asks whether each sale contributes enough. The second asks whether the total test is an exposure the brand can afford.

Existing B2B and B2C demand should change the mix

A brand entering with confirmed hospitality or retail orders is not starting from the same position as a brand relying only on consumer discovery.

Committed B2B demand can justify stock against named customers and delivery windows. It may also be concentrated: one account can absorb a large share of the first shipment and create a sharp restock requirement.

B2C demand is usually more distributed and more variable. It needs a forecast across the replenishment lead time, plus a clear view of delivery price, conversion and repeat purchase.

Keep the two lines separate on the stock sheet:

That separation prevents one enthusiastic trade conversation or a large social following from being treated as guaranteed sell-through.

Decide the next shipment before the first one leaves

Every opening-stock plan should name three decisions in advance.

Reorder

At what remaining stock position, sales rate or committed pipeline does the next shipment become necessary? The trigger must account for replenishment time. Reordering only when the shelf is nearly empty can be too late.

Adjust

What result would change the product or channel mix? A strong B2B response and weak B2C conversion may justify more trade stock and less consumer allocation. The opposite may justify a different case mix or route.

Redeploy or stop

Set a review date. If the market has not produced the agreed evidence, decide whether the remaining stock should be discounted, transferred, redeployed through another European market, or held for a more specific opportunity.

Without those decisions, opening stock becomes a hope rather than a test.

Use the smallest quantity that can produce a fair commercial result

The goal is not minimal inventory. It is minimum credible inventory.

Enough stock to:

• fulfil the demand already committed;

• keep the product reliably available while replenishment is in transit;

• supply the samples and activations the launch actually requires;

• preserve workable unit economics;

• and generate a clear decision about what happens next.

Lexir helps drinks brands place compliant stock closer to European buyers, support B2B and B2C routes, move samples and fulfil orders while keeping the resulting activity visible. That makes it easier to size the next shipment from real market movement rather than from optimism or a distributor's opening estimate.

Before the stock leaves, write down the demand, the contribution, the cash at risk, the replenishment time and the decision date.

The market does not need an arbitrary number of cases. It needs enough stock to give demand a fair test—and no more cash than the evidence deserves.

Sources

• International Trade Administration: Determine Total Export Price

• International Trade Administration: Conducting Market Research

• The Drinks Association: Investing for Growth in 2026